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Overall, CTG is very likely to exceed its 2010 earnings plan (EBT of VND4,000bn) as 1H10 EBT (VND2,662bn) has already fulfilled 67% of the plan. MKS upgrade our 2010 EBT forecast by 9% to VND4,300bn and our EPS forecast by 9% to VND2,345. Our target price (VND27,000) implies a forward PE of 11.5x and PB of 2.4x, which MKS regard as fair for this, the fourth largest commercial bank in Vietnam. Our 2010 EPS and BPVS estimates assume that CTG will raised its chartered capital to VND16,520bn by the year end via additional share issuance (stock dividend, rights issue at par) and a 10% stake sold to IFC.
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