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MKS's forecasted profit progression in 2010-12 looks dull, which is a result of four factors: (i) a tax rebate of VND39bn received this year in respect of prior tax payments; (ii) becoming a full rate 25% taxpayer from 2010 onwards, double the 2009 rate; (iii) the paradoxical boom nature of 2009 for NTP, in which it benefited from global-recession-induced raw material price declines; and (iv) our perhaps conservative assumption of 10% annual raw material price increases versus only 5% annual product price increases.
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