The US dollar in the domestic market has so far this year appreciated by about 2.2 per cent against the Vietnamese đồng, though the US dollar index (DXY) has decreased by nearly nine per cent in the international market.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) yesterday listed the central exchange rate at VNĐ24,973 per US dollar, up VNĐ28 against the previous day.
With a trading band of ±5 per cent compared to the central exchange rate, Vietcombank - the bank with the largest foreign exchange transactions in the banking system - yesterday listed the dollar at VNĐ25,760 and VNĐ26,150 per dollar for buying and selling, up VNĐ10 against the previous day.
At VietinBank, the dollar was traded at VNĐ25,785 and VNĐ26,145 per dollar for buying and selling.
The increase in the USD/VNĐ exchange rate in Việt Nam is in contrast to the continuous cooling of the greenback in the international market since the beginning of this year. Currently, the DXY is trading at 100.4, down about nine per cent compared to the peak set at the beginning of this year. Meanwhile, since the beginning of this year, the dollar at Vietnamese commercial banks has increased by about 2.2 per cent.
In a recent report, the United Overseas Bank (UOB) also said while other currencies in the region recovered against the dollar in April, the đồng was a special case as it decreased by 1.6 per cent against the dollar in the month to VNĐ25,990.
According to the report, the market may have reacted to the negative economic impact on Việt Nam, after the US announced to impose tariffs of up to 46 per cent on Vietnamese goods, the second highest globally, after China. The manufacturing PMI also dropped sharply to 45.6, the lowest level in two years, showing the cautious sentiment of manufacturers amid concerns that Vietnamese goods are losing their price competitiveness in the largest export market - the US.
In a recent report to the National Assembly, the SBV also said that the USD/VNĐ exchange rate and the foreign exchange market are under great and multi-dimensional pressure and rapid change in the wake of unpredictable international economic and political developments, especially the US tariff policy.
"The SBV has flexibly managed the foreign exchange rate, coordinated monetary policy tools such as regulating liquidity and interest rates, and intervened when necessary to stabilise the foreign exchange market, contributing to the macro economic stability and inflation control, besides meeting the legitimate foreign currency needs of the economy," the SBV states.
According to expert Cấn Văn Lực, the USD/VNĐ exchange rate has increased by more than two per cent since the beginning of this year, lower than the previous forecast. However, the đồng is still depreciating compared to the dollar while other currencies in the region are appreciating against the dollar.
Lực attributed the depreciation of the dollar to the higher dollar demand for import-export activities and the hoarding of the dollar and gold in the domestic market in the first four months of this year. He forecast that USD/VNĐ exchange rate would increase by between 3-4 per cent this year.
The UOB forecast the USD/VNĐ exchange rate would be at VNĐ26,100 per dollar in Q2 2025, VNĐ26,300 in Q3 2025, VNĐ26,000 in Q4 2025, and VNĐ25,800 in Q1 2026. — VNS/BIZHUB
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