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Sugar has enjoyed one of the most consistent rallies among soft commodities since the start of the year, rising from USc 11/lb at the end of December to touch USc 13.8/lb at the end of February (+25%). In January, we were of the view that a recovery in investor sentiment as well as a weaker dollar, stronger oil prices, and continuing ethanol use would help sugar prices post big gains this year. At the time, we expected industry estimates of a large sugar deficit this season to be supportive (see Commodity Outlook, 29 January 2009, `Sugar - still attractive’).
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