Market Vector and Sumitomo Life should kicked themselves for being such a fool investing in BVH!!!! They should hire me to do their speculations.

On Dec.2012, HSBC Insurance was able to get rid of its 18% BVH at a small loss. HSBC was finally tired of getting the 2% divident from BVH, and its was lucky to find a bigger fool like Sumitomo Life so it did not have to suffer a huge REAL LOSS selling BVH at market. There is nothing Sumitomo can do to help BVH unless the SCIC would sell BVH. SCIC may get about 1 billion dollars for its BVH holding, but some high ranking comrades will lost their lucrative jobs at BVH.
A few more years, SumitomoLife will learned that how big a fool they were buying BVH and it will have to take a big real loss getting rid of BVH.

I just found out that a big buyer of BVH is Market Vector. The management of this fund must be happy with the 2% divident that they can get every year from BVH, and they can push BVH up whenever they want for a PAPER GAIN by buying more BVH. When these fools have to sale BVH they will have REAL LOSS because no one else will buy.
If the SCIC wants to sale all of its BVH holding, BVH will be below 10.000 in a hurry. Market Vector does deserved a 1st class Greater Fool award.

I had learn a good lesson from BVH for the last few weeks. BVH hit 61,500 before lower to 57,000 yesterday while I though its fair value is 12,000. The most important reason is that BVH has a very small free floating shares: SUPPLY and DEMAND (most of the shares are owned by the government)so any one with a few billion VND can push BVH up using a margin account sucking foreign and domestic investors along for the BALOON ride. BVH is the solid proof that the Greater Fool theory is working very well in the VN market where a sucker is born every minute !!!

The market has been adjusting for the last 2 days and BVH has been fluctuating between 51,000-55,000. I noticed that the foreigners has been buying less BVH (from more than 50% to less than 25% of volume). They are forced to buy BVH because BVH, MSN and VNM are big chunk of VN index and most of their money is in the index!!!
It is the golden opportunity for Vietnamese investors to bail out of these baloons at a good prices and let those ETFs be the greater fools.
I predict that these baloons will explode before April, 2013 because the foreigners will forced those ETF managers at their fund holder meetings to write off these baloons. Only VNM may survive because of its higher divident.

The foreigners are buying BVH today. It looks like they are happy with the 2% divident with no hope for any future improvement!!! As long as the foreigners can not hold a controlled interest (more than 51% of all voting share and the goverment still have the major part of BVH), the same bad/incompetent management will be there untill BVH be bankrupted like Vinashin/Vinaline.
I am advising all investors to bail out of BVH today (31-01-2013) at 52,500 and let the foreigners holding the BVH baloon and be known as the GREATER FOOLS.
If I am correct that the BVH baloon will be deflated before TET, I am expecting a free dinner from those making a profit. I am unable to short BVH so I will not get any profit from the BVH baloon.

I am supprised that investors are paying up to 54,500 for BVH today. Either they did not read my opinion or they still believe in future earning of BVH!!!
I forgot to tell them that future earning of BVH will be down and only down even that inflation will definitely up. The three reasons for my conclusion are:
1. Most Vietnamese do not like insurance. I know many people do not have the motorcycle insurance as required by laws because the penalty (if they would be caught)is not harsh.
2. Competitions! Foreign competions is getting stronger and better because of the open market by WTO treaty.
3. Bad and incompetent management: The rate of growth for its EPS is flat even that inflation has been sky high and BVH was a well established company.
I am welcome any comment about my opinion that the "Greater Fool Theory" is working very well in the inflated BVH baloon

I am wonder: What kind of investors who are paying 51,000 for BVH?
Its P/E=23; divident=2% (1,200/51,000); BVPS=17,297 (Source: VietStock)
I will not pay more than 12,000 for BVH (10% divident), but many investors are paying 4-5X !!! They must be a bunch of fools who are throwing good money to inflate the BVH baloon while hoping for some greater fools will buy the baloon before it explode!!!
MSN, VIC or even VNM are the other baloons waiting to explode. I am waiting for the day that I can short these stocks.